Evaluting Measures to Support Dryland Rural Populations Under High Climatic Uncertainty and Risk: the Example of the Aral Sea Region

Evaluating international technical assistance projects usually calls for assessing the efficiency and effectiveness of planned indicators. As climatic uncertainty and risk increase, there is a need to improve approaches to assessing the activities of such projects. Using the example of a project to adapt dryland dehkan households, cooperatives, and farms in the Aral Sea region (the Republic of Karakarpakstan in Uzbekistan) to climate change, this research methodically substantiates a set of indicators to assess the long-term effectiveness of adaptation measures. With regard to humanitarian support measures (which are strengthening the hydrometeorological monitoring network, creating early warning systems, raising public awareness about various climate threats and possibilities to reduce their negative consequences, and reclaiming the dried-up Aral Sea bottom to reduce dustiness) that pursue noneconomic goals, an assessment was made against previously established project performance indicators. With regard to ensuring the viability of dehkan households, cooperatives and farms over the long term, this research proves the need in evaluating the effectiveness of agronomic, water-saving, and landscape adaptation measures as a combination of private benefits (economic efficiency) and public goods (social and environmental efficiency). These evaluation indicators will help identify the most promising, effective and efficient practices to replicate in future projects.